![]() ![]() In this two-stage approach, the first task is forecasting the relative nationwide popularity of the Democratic and Republican parties in November. The second uses local data to predict how voters in each district will behave, given that national climate. The first model uses available national-level variables to forecast what the popularity of the two major parties will be on election day. Putting this principle into effect means building not one model but two. Doing justice to them requires modelling how a district’s preferences vary in response to the nationwide political environment. Forecasting methods that see every district in terms of a fixed departure from the national trend-the sort of approach that simply labels somewhere “D+6”, meaning it is expected to favour the Democrats six percentage points more than is the case nationwide-fail to capture the complexity of voters’ choices. Voters decide whether to show up to the polls and whom to support based both on which party they want to control Congress and on which of the individual candidates on the ballot they prefer as their representative. Our model’s other axiom is that legislative races are determined by both local and national factors. So accurately modelling the shape of all points on a probability distribution-particularly the tails that represent long-shot scenarios-can often be more important than getting the average right. The first is that, when facing an uncertain future, virtually every scenario has some chance of occurring, and highly unlikely events can be particularly important. The Economist’s model of the contest for the House of Representatives proceeds from two basic premises. For readers curious to understand how we produce these estimates, our methodology is outlined below. We will publish updates every day until the election at /midterms. (There will also be 35 seats up for grabs in the Senate, the upper chamber, which holds elections every two years for about a third of its six-year positions.) The Economist has developed a statistical model for the House, to predict the results of every individual race and the battle for a majority. ![]() These are contested every two years, both alongside the presidential race and in mid-term elections. ![]() ON NOVEMBER 6th 2018 the United States will hold elections for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of Congress. ![]()
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